James Gordan
Image: TSMC
In 2020, we were faced with many new standards, including the recurring lack of different technologies, from the CPU and GPU to smartphones and other mobile devices. Most of the shortfall seems to be related to memory and energy management chips (e.g. pulse width modulation chips). The impact of the lack of memory chips on the recent introduction of the NVIDIA GPU and its role in new phones and SSDs is already known, but PWM chips also contribute. In fact, it is only today that DigiTimes is reporting a serious shortage of PWM MSC. The latest SEMI press release (via DSOG) shows how this combination will lead to an epic increase in the production of 300 mm of dust over the next three to four years.
Original press release
The investment in 300mm of dust in 2020 will increase by 13% from the previous record level of 2018 and will be another important year for the semiconductor industry in 2023, EMIS said today in its forecast for 2024 for 300mm of dust. The COWID 19 pandemic caused a sharp increase in production costs in 2020 due to the global acceleration of the digital transformation, and this increase is expected to continue until 2021.
Faster than the growth is the increasing demand for cloud services, servers, laptops, games and medical technologies. Behind it are also rapidly evolving technologies such as 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), automotive, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, which further fuel the demand for more connectivity, larger data centers and larger amounts of data.
The COVID 19 pandemic is accelerating digital change in virtually every sector imaginable to change the way we work and live, said Ajit Manocha, President and CEO of SEMI. The expected record costs and 38 new manufacturing facilities reinforce the role of semiconductors as the backbone of the cutting-edge technology driving this change and promise to help address some of the world’s greatest challenges.
Investments in the production of semiconductor fabrics will increase further in 2021, but at a slower pace (4% per year). In line with previous cycles in the industry, the report also predicts a moderate slowdown in 2022 and a further slight decline in 2024 after a record $70 billion in 2023. See illustration. 1.
Addition of 38 new substances 300 mm
The SEMI 300mm Outlook Fab to 2024 shows that the chip industry will add at least 38 new 300mm bulk substances between 2020 and 2024, a conservative prognosis that does not take into account low-probability or auditory substance designs. Over the same period, production capacity will increase by around 1,8 million wafers per month to more than 7 million wafers. See illustration. 2.
According to the project forecasts, the industry is likely to add at least 38 new 300 mm installations between 2019 and 2024. Taiwan will add 11 volumetric plants, and China will add eight, half of the total number. By 2024, 161 300 mm systems will be used for the production of chips.
Regional potential growth and regional expenditure
China will rapidly increase its share of world production by 300 million tonnes, from 8% in 2015 to 20% in 2024, reaching 1.5 million 300 million tonnes per minute in the last year of the period under overview. While much of this growth will come from non-Chinese companies, Chinese organizations are increasingly investing in developing their potential. By 2020, these companies will represent around 43% of China’s production capacity, and this share is expected to reach 50% by 2022 and 60% by 2024.
Japan’s share of 300 mm installed capacity will further decrease from 19% in 2015 to 12% in 2024. The share of the American continent is also declining, from 13% in 2015 to an expected 10% in 2024.
The largest regional sponsors are Korea with an investment of USD 15 to 19 billion, followed by Taiwan with an investment of USD 14 to 17 billion in 300 mm fabrics and then China with an investment of USD 11 to 13 billion.
Between 2020 and 2024, the strongest investment growth will take place in regions that spend less. Europe/Middle East will take the lead with impressive growth of 164%, followed by South East Asia with 59%, America with 35% and Japan with 20%.
Expenditure growth by product area
The storage facility is responsible for most of the cost increase of the 300 mm plant. Actual and projected capital expenditure for each year between 2020 and 2023 shows steady growth in the upper single-digit range, with a greater increase in activity of 10% by 2024.
The contribution of DRAMs and 3D NANDs to the production costs of 300 mm will be uneven between 2020 and 2024. However, investment in logic and MPS will increase steadily between 2021 and 2023. The power units will be allocated to a 300 mm power plant, which will show growth of more than 200% in 2021 and double-digit growth in 2022 and 2023.
Tracking 286 substances and lines from 2013 to 2024, the 300mm Fab Outlook to 2024 reflects 247 updates of 104 substances, nine new lists of substances and lines and two cancellations since the March 2020 report.
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Simon Leonard